Steadfast Results

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P1, 2018–2026, per year
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Real fund and Bitcoin prices, after costs
P1, older data 2011–2017, per year
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Lifted by Bitcoin's 2013 and 2017 bubbles
P1 worst drop, 2018–2026
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Peak to bottom of the account
$5,000 in P1 from 2011
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Starting January 2011, at the latest month-end

How P1 trades

Checked once a day after the US close. Each position shrinks when its recent volatility is above 60% a year. Rebalanced monthly; spare cash sits in Treasury bills.

  • 25% TQQQ (3× Nasdaq-100) while QQQ is above its 200-day average, or after an RSI(2) dip below 10 while still above it, until QQQ closes above its 5-day average.
  • 25% USD (2× semiconductors) while SOXX is above its 200-day average.
  • 50% Bitcoin (through the IBIT fund) while Bitcoin is above its 200-day average.

Growth of $5,000 in P1

Month-end account value, log scale, January 2011 to October 2026.

P1 return by calendar year

Compressed scale so the 2013 and 2017 Bitcoin years fit. 2011 starts in January; 2026 runs to October.

Every strategy that reached 35% a year in 2018–2026

Annual growth after costs. "Older" is data the strategy was not chosen on. Only the stock + Bitcoin mixes clear 35% in both periods.

Strategy Indicators Markets 2018–26 / yr Older / yr Older period Worst drop 2018–26 Worst drop older Verdict

Paper accounts

Each account started with $5,000 of pretend money. Snapshot taken 22 Oct 2026; live trading is blocked for all of them.

Account Strategy Value Change Status

Before you use real money

  • 2018–2026 was where these strategies were chosen, and it was an exceptional stretch for US tech and semiconductors.
  • Without Bitcoin's two bubble years the older-period return falls just below the 35% goal.
  • No stock-only or forex-only strategy reached 35% a year on older data in any test.
  • Watch the P1 paper account for 3–6 months first, and only risk money you could lose a third or more of.
  • The validated ETF portfolio stays the safer core.

Research log

Every round of testing, in order. Rules were written down before each test, and older data was kept back for the final check.

Round What was tested Trials Best result Verdict

Backtests are historical simulations, not forecasts. Snapshot of the Steadfast research of 22 Oct 2026; paper accounts use pretend money and live trading is blocked.